Announcements

June 1, 2010

Iraq: The Status Quo Coalition Forms, World Politics Review

Since my last article on Iraqi politics the coalition has become clearer but Maliki's difficulties have increased. Right now the most likely result is a Shia-Kurd dominated government with either Maliki or a compromise Shia candidate as PM.

March 16, 2010

Iraq Elections: Maliki's Path to Re-election, World Politics Review

This is my post-election analysis from Tuesday, March 16. Provides seat projections from partial results and analyzes factors I view as putting Maliki in a better position than most U.S. observers realize.

March 11, 2010

This is my immediate post-election coverage at Real Clear World:
Understanding the Poll Results, March 8, 2010
Southern Iraq Exit Polls, March 8, 2010
What's Next for Iraq, March 10, 2008

March 5, 2010

Likely Scenarios for Iraq's Elections, World Politics Review

This is my pre-election analysis from Friday, March 5. Provides background on what is to come as Iraq's election results come in.

October 30, 2009

The Iraqi National Alliance, the New Shia Coalition, Online Exclusive

Iraq's upcoming parliamentary elections - now scheduled for January 16 but increasingly likely to be postponed - will feature a variety of competing coalitions, including two major Shia powers. This paper looks at the new Iraqi National Alliance (INA), the primary Shia sectarian coalition.

October 3, 2009

Nuri Maliki, the Shia Factions & Iraq's Provincial Elections, Online Exclusive

Iraq's January provincial elections shifted the balance of power in favor of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. This paper looks at the post-election coalition process which took place March-May with a focus on Maliki's political alliances.

August 11, 2009

Saudi King Puts His Foot Down, But Gently, Online Exclusive

The controversy surrounding a Wahhabi cleric's repeated anti-Shia statements - and challenges to King Abdullah - illustrates the balance that the Saudi king maintains between reform and stability. This paper shows how the Saudi elite manages Wahhabi dissent.

July 5, 2009

How Muthanna was Won, Online Exclusive

The intrigues surrounding Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim's surprise victory in Muthanna over Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki show the fight between the two men has become a zero-sum game. This paper explains how Muthanna's new provincial government was formed.